FPJ Exclusive: ‘Not Expecting India’s Loss vs New Zealand To Play A Big Hand In Australia Series’, Reckons Brad Hogg

Another year and India will defend their Border-Gavaskar Trophy as they are set for a sojourn of Australia for a gruelling five-Test series, running from late November 2024 to early January 2025. Despite winning the last two series Down Under, India face an uphill challenge as Australia are keen to end a ten-year drought of not having held the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.

But India's task has been cut out after New Zealand dented their confidence by consigning them to a landmark Test series loss. But the evidence of the 2020-21 leg will prompt Australia not to underestimate their opposition, regardless of the past results.

Former Australian cricketer and two-time World Cup-winner Brad Hogg spoke to the Free Press Journal to preview the five-Test series.

Here are the excerpts from the interview:

1) We start with India. A month ago, they seemed on track to take on Australia confidently. But this series loss to New Zealand. What do you think it means for them ahead of the tour Down Under?

It's actually a good thing because they were well ahead in the World Test Championship ladder. They felt 'right we should easily beat New Zealand on our home soil'. I thought they took them too lightly. They didn't bat well in the first innings in both games. I think it's just a little reminder that the game of cricket can turn on its head very quickly. It will give them a good kick up the backside and I think they will be better prepared when they get to Australia because you've got to adapt from Indian conditions to Australian conditions.

They will be working harder, analysing it, a lot better than what they probably would've done. So, they will be a little bit more meticulous. So, I'm not expecting it to play a big hand in the series in Australia.

2) Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma – they might possibly be playing their last series in Australia. So what do you think this series means for them and do you feel the change in conditions might help them regain their form?

Look, if it's going to be their last series in Australia, I think they will play with a little bit more freedom. I'm a little worried about both of them at the moment. I don't think they are fully at their best. It's not just form, but there are other things going on in their mind. I think it's more mental preparation than anything. If you see the shot he played in the last Test match, it was not Virat Kohli. It's a half volley that he normally hits down the ground. Playing a swipe, that's very un Virat Kohli-like.

I think those two might lift when they get down here in Australia. They both love a contest and a fight. They want to be there at the big stage. There's no better stage than Australia vs India.

3) We had seen in the last two series wins for India in Australia that Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane had played critical roles in their series wins. Given the inexperiece in the middle-order, do you feel the selectors should have recalled Rahane and Pujara?

No, I think once you've made that move, you've made that move. You've moved on. You've got to reward some of the youngsters, who have performed well. Jaiswal and Gill have been phenomenal. There's one player I'm worried about down here, that's Jaiswal. I just think he has played some wonderful innings over there in India. I just think when it comes to playing in Brisbane and Perth, there's a little bit of extra bounce. He sort of plays with his weight back, not over that front leg, which you probably need here in Australia. Just outside off-stump, he might be a bit vulnerable. That's one thing I'd be really interested to see how he changes or that element of his game here.

I think Gill is going to have a ripping series here. I like his aggression and he gets in good positions. He is able to play through the line of the ball. He is brilliant. But it's going to be down to Sarfaraz Khan or Rahul in the batting line-up, which is a bit of an issue. Rahul, he is in and out of the team at the moment, lacking confidence and you don't want that coming to Australia. Sarfaraz is a confident young man and I love that he goes out and plays aggressive cricket. But when I see him setting against the New Zealand bowlers, the back lift is very low. I don't really like talking about the hands, but the hands are very low. That's okay on a low bouncy wicket, but when you come out here, is he going to be out and get up and really take on that short ball. It will be a little quick than what's he got in India.

He will want to rectify that little glitch in his technique. But I'm excited about it, that's the challenge of international cricket. Yes, you want to win the series, but you also want individuals and youngsters being tested, see how they change and adapt to the conditions. I'm looking forward to it.

4) More on Yashasvi Jaiswal. How decisive will the contest between him and Nathan Lyon be?

That's going to be a good one. Nathan Lyon is a crafty bowler, gets a lot of overspin. Jaiswal likes to play those back cuts. I think Nathan Lyon will be sitting there and going, 'Little bit of overpsin, little bit of bounce, just got to have my backward point a little finer for that top edge. Because Jaiswal likes to play that back cut as well. So, Nathan Lyon will try to set him up for that and have a deep point as well and make him hit it harder. If he wasn't so good on that cut shot, the deep point would come up.

He will aim to keep it tight in the legs but give those wider options every now and then to feed that first slip to that short backward point. Look at that short fine backward point coming into play for a few catches from Jaiswal off Lyon.

5) Also, a few words about Rishabh Pant and how vital will it be for Australia to be prepared against him?

Well, he is really the match-winner for India. Whoever dominates in the middle-order between Travis Head and Rishabh Pant will play a big part in who wins the series. They both score quickly and put pressure on the opposition teams, changing the momentum of the game very quickly. The idea of Test cricket is to score runs quickly, specially in the first innings to give your team an opportunity to bowl out the opposition twice.

And that's what both of those players are in there for – to up the ante and make sure you score quickly and I think he's one player that Australia will be really really focused on. Make sure what plans you got against him, let's execute them to the best of our ability and try to put him on the back foot.

6) How crucial will be the absence of Mohammed Shami, especially for Jasprit Bumrah, who seem to lack the support of another fast bowler during the recent loss to New Zealand?

I think Shami is a huge loss. Akash Deep is good. Young Rana is in there. I really like him and really think there is a huge upside to him. You have also got Siraj in there, but I wouldn't be surprised if Rana does play. He's got that extra bounce and bit of fire about him. I just think he will be suited to the Australian conditions. Krishna is also there, so I don't mind him.

If I was walking in, I'd be thinking Shami is a huge loss. He adds that extra pressure, hits good lines, and has extra pace. If I was India, I would be sitting with my two young quicks Krishna and Rana, saying that 'you're going to have a big opportunity in here, one of you would be playing the first Test. I'd go with Akash Deep and I think he can hit good lines and lengths, do a McGrath-type job, support. But I think Rana and Krishna – Rana more so has to be your impact bowler, where he just comes in, tries to bowl that extra pace. The pressure can be built by Akash, Bumrah, and the spinners around them. Just let Rana express himself, I think he can express himself and play a pivotal role down here.

7) Speaking of Australia, Steve Smith has excellent numbers against India, averaging 65.87. But Smith didn't quite stamp the authority as he was expected to in the last two series against India. Not to mention he had scores of 0 and 3 in his only Sheffield Shield outing this season. So how do you see him go about his business?

0 and 3 in first-class cricket. It's good that that he is playing out there. I think someone like himself, he is playing, looking to get some runs under his belt and spend some time out there. But I don't think he will be sharply focused as he would be in Test match game, specially against India and the likes of Bumrah. He is a crafty player. I'm not worried about his past or tomorrow. But I know Steve Smith will be working very hard to make sure that he is right for the big stage.

They tried opening with him. They're not going to open with him in this series, he's going back to No.4. But that was a good move because it gave him an opportunity in a different position and gave him a new challenge. All of a sudden that challenge didn't come off and he's got some work to do. I think we're going to see the best of Steve Smith in the series. He will have a big one.

8) One of the burning questions for Australia – who partners Usman Khawaja at the top? We have seen the likes of Bancroft, Harris, and Konstas have scored runs, but have not made that compelling a case. Not to mention even David Warner has thrown his hat in the ring.

I don't know if David Warner has thrown his hat in the ring (laughs). It's an interview and you got to ask questions, so it hit the headlines. If you get asked that question and you got a phone call and Warner said, 'If they need me, I'll put my hat in the ring'. It is typical David Warner fashion. I thought if he would have got another opportunity, he would do really well.

You mentioned a couple of names – Bancroft and Harris, both are 32+ years of age. That would be something I would be looking at if I was a selector, 'Khawaja, Labuschagne, Steve Smith how long are they going to be playing for, we need to get a youngster in there, in the top order and have the experience around him'. So, Sam Konstas will be definitely looked at. If they think he has the potential, they will go with him.

There's another guy that no one talks about is (Henry) Hunt from South Australia. He's made some big hundreds, but he's a bit of hit and miss. He has made some low scores, but also some big scores. He's 27, I like the look of him. There's Josh Inglis as well, he bats in the middle-order in four-day cricket for WA. But he makes runs in very tough situations and comes around the new ball early on in his innings. So, they might be looking at him too.

Harris and Bancroft have missed the carriage. I think it'll be Sam and Hunt from SA, they'll be the frontrunners. I think Renshaw has also missed the boat. He really hasn't set the world alight this year.

9) Do you feel Australia's big three quicks will play all five Tests? They seem to have lost steamed by the 4th Test in the previous series at home. As things stand, Scott Boland and Michael Neser have made compelling cases to play at least one Test.

I think Australia will want to have those quicks bowl in every Test, but I think they will rest Josh Hazlewood for one Test. Scott Boland will come for one Test, but they won't rest him for Perth and Brisbane. But they will probably try and use Scott Boland at the MCG where he's had a lot of success. They might try and rest Mitchell Starc too at some stage because he is an impact bowler.

I think the other worry for Australia going into this Test is if Mitchell Marsh can bowl the overs that Cameron Green bowled. Green has a little bit of extra height and pace than Marsh does. It can be tough for the opposition. I don't think he is as effective as Cameron Green in applying the pressure. But I think where the pressure comes from is the other three quicks applying it, making it hard for the opposition to score.

When Marsh comes on, they really feel they got to go hard at him and that's when he comes into his fore and picks up wickets. He's not that easy to face as well. But he doesn't get that pace and bounce.

10) How does Australia replace Cameron Green in their squad for the series?

I think they have got young Aaron Hardie from Western Australia. He is good with the ball and has made some massive runs like Josh Inglis when the team has been on the back foot. I think he will be someone they will be looking at to replace Cameron Green in the squad. I wouldn't be too worried about it because Mitchell Marsh is going to be batting 6, where Cameron Green would normally bat. So, Steve Smith is not opening and batting at 4. So, they are going to have a regular opener coming in.

So, for me, I'd have my all-round option as Hardie, playing Shield cricket as much as possible. If Marsh has an injury (we don't wish that upon anyone) and you need an all-rounder, you could pull Aaron Hardie to do that job. I think he would stand up well. He has been around that Australian team for a while and not too far. He's a smart person and is studying engineering in Australia. So, if he gets an opportunity, India would find him a tough customer to handle with the bat and ball.

11) How do you see the battle between Lyon and Ashwin brewing? They are almost neck to neck in terms of wickets. Who do you think will come on top as a spinner in the series?

I think they are both quality bowlers. The one thing I love about both of them is how they prepare to improve their skills even this late in their career. They know you can only get better as you move on, especially as a spinner. Age doesn't matter. For me, Ashwin has got more variety. But for Australian conditions, Lyon has got more overspin that you really need here. It's going to be a tight battle. But I think Lyon will have the better of Ashwin here.

But when you're in India, Ashwin obviously has the better of Lyon because he has the tools in the shed to be able to adapt to those conditions. Whereas, over here, he has the top spinner, but it's not quite as effective as Lyon because it's Lyon's stock delivery. For Ashwin, to bowl that shape, it's not really his stock delivery, it's bit of a change up. It's a bit like asking Shane Warne to come in and bowl wrong uns instead of his great leg-spinner.

That's how difficult it can be for an off-spinner to make that change up and bowl it consistently. Because you're asking your body to do something different.

12) Your predictions for the series scoreline, highest wicket-taker and highest run-getter?

I think Australia might win the series 3-1 or 3-2. I think playing in Perth, Queensland and pink-ball Test earlier on, that favours Australia. We've got better quick-bowling attack as well. I'm going to back Pant to be the highest run-scorer for India, Gill might be there as well.

For Australia, I think it's going to be Travis Head. As I said before, between Pant and Travis Head, who makes most runs will definitely have a big influence in whose team will win. If Rana plays all four matches, I think he will be the leading wicket-taker for India. I like youth, there's something about him I like.

For Australia, I don't think you can go past Pat Cummins. I think he will be the leading wicket-taker in the series. That's my prediction.