The vagaries of equidistance in a polarised polity: Data
Parties that endorsed the BJP’s signature ideological policies despite taking on them electorally, suffered in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections
Regional parties have been a significant presence in Indian polity for over three decades now. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, they could be classified into three types — one, parties that allied with the Bharatiya Janata Party in the National Democratic Alliance; two, parties that were part of the INDIA bloc and a distinctive third category. This category includes parties that were technically not part of the NDA, and had, in the recent past, endorsed controversial legislations introduced by the BJP or adopted ideological positions closer to that of the BJP.
The first category includes parties such as the Shiv Sena (led by Eknath Shinde), Janata Dal (United), Telugu Desam Party, Janata Dal (Secular), Lok Janshakti Party, Asom Gana Parishad and Nationalist Congress Party.
The second category includes Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Samajwadi Party, the Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party (SP), the Left parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Aam Aadmi Party. The Trinamool Congress supported the alliance after the polls.
The third category includes the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party, Biju Janata Dal, the AIADMK, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Bharat Rashtra Samiti and the Shiromani Akali Dal.
In 2024, the fortunes of the parties in the first two categories were tied to the fate of their respective alliances — they did well where the dominant party of the alliance performed well. But the parties in the third category did rather poorly.
Table 1 looks at three legislations by BJP that were in line with their ideological positions on “asymmetric federalism in India” — dilution of Article 370, Farmers Bill and Citizenship Amendment Act.
Table 1 | The table lists where select parties positioned themselves on these legislations. Note how YSCRP, BJD, BRS, AIADMK, AAP and BSP supported BJP on one or more of these legislations, despite technically contesting against the BJP in their respective States and ideologically being opposed to it.
Chart appears incomplete? Click to AMP mode
Table 2 | The table looks at the performance of YSCRP, BJD, AIADMK, BRS, BSP and AAP (not in the third category but endorsed the dilution of Article 370). In the tables the State parties’ vote share and the BJP’s vote share is mentioned. The State parties’ contested vote share (cont.) and the BJP’s contested vote share is also listed.
These parties suffered a significant loss. The AAP had later taken antagonistic positions to the BJP but had also, like some State units of the Congress such in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, resorted to “soft Hindutva” as a counter to the BJP’s emphasis on Hindutva as an ideological distinguishing mark. The Congress also suffered some of its heaviest defeats in these two States.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK lost much support after its alliance with BJP and could not recover it even after ending the alliance as the DMK-led coalition had a stronger cementing factor in its ideological outlook towards BJP. The YSRCP’s endorsement of the BJP’s ideologically motivated legislations robbed it of any distinguishing factor and especially the support of minorities, many of whom — according to the Lokniti post-poll survey — voted for the rival TDP and the Jana Sena Party despite their alliance with the BJP.
The BJD’s “friends at the Centre/ rivals in the State” approach only allowed the BJP to grow at its expense, a fate that was endured by the BRS, whose later turn towards being equidistant from Congress and the BJP did not help either. The BSP also adopted the same ploy of “equidistance” and limited its critique of the BJP, abjuring any agitational opposition. It, too, suffered a significant erosion of support, with many voters endorsing the SP-Congress coalition in U.P. These parties also lost out on votes from those who wanted to support one of the national alliances.
Swetha Kumar is interning with The Hindu
Source: Election Commission of India
Also read:Are regional parties in India facing a succession problem?
- Telegram
SEE ALL
PRINT
Data Point
/
General Elections 2024
/
Bharatiya Janata Party
/
voting