Brokerage Views: Citi On Indian Equity, Nomura On Voltas, HSBC On Shriram Finance And More

Citi finds upsides limited at current levels for India equity after the June quarter result announcements come to an end. Bernstein maintains 'outperform' on Paytm, and Nomura shares outlook on the impact mineral taxes on the cement industry.

Nomura and Kotak Securities maintain contrasting views on Voltas Ltd. Nuvama maintains its 'buy' rating on Sunteck Realty Ltd., while ICICI Securities maintains 'sell' on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd.

NDTV Profit tracks what brokerages are putting out on stocks and sectors. Here are all the top calls from analysts you need to know about on Monday.

Citi On India Equity

• Has set the Nifty September 2025 target at 25,000 versus the earlier June 2025 target of 24,400 based on the analysis of the first quarter of fiscal 2025 for BSE100, excluding oil marketing companies.

• Industrials, discretionary sectors' Ebitda and earnings beat expectations.

• Find upsides limited at current levels; would be buyer on any dips.

• Although still tracking ahead of the long-term trend.

• Materials, healthcare, and utilities saw strong earnings growth.

• Staples, IT and communication saw subdued growth.

• Tariff hikes should aid the second quarter onwards for communications.

• The Nifty earnings revision is now flattish versus the upward revision earlier.

Nuvama On India Equity Strategy

• Slowing profits amid record high valuations warrant caution.

• Hereon, demand is critical for earnings given outlook on demand remains dull.

• Expect consumer, private banks, insurance, IT to lead growth.

• Expect autos, metals, PSUs and industrials likely to lag.

• For the Nifty, fiscal 2025 is off to a soft start.

• Fiscal 2025 earnings were cut by 2% led by cyclicals (autos and industrials).

• For defensives (IT and Fast-Moving Consumer Goods), fiscal 2025 earnings remains stable.

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Nomura On Voltas

• The brokerage maintains 'buy' with a target price of Rs 1,857, implying an upside of 20% from the previous close.

• Raises unitary cooling products, or UCP, revenue growth for Voltas to 30% year-on-year in fiscal 2025.

• Maintains Ebit margin at 9–10.5% for UCPs.

• Raises the target price-earnings ratio multiple to 50 times from 45 times earlier.

• Voltas' strategy to prioritise market share gain over margins is a step in the right direction.

• Catalysts that should support a margin recovery include price hikes, moderating commodity prices, logistics savings from the Chennai plant ramp-up, and PLI incentives.

Kotak Securities On Voltas

• The brokerage maintains a 'sell' on the company, with a target price of Rs 1,100, implying a downside of 28% from the previous close.

• The volume growth has been robust, but the margins of unitary cooling products, or UCP, have disappointed.

• UCP margins were impacted on account of discounted sales, higher subvention costs, rising input, and advertising and promotional spends.

• Growth in UCP was as expected, but margins of 8.6% missed estimates of 10%.

• Limited margin expansion and unchanged guidance on margins signify intense competition.

ICICI Securities On Mazagon Dock

• The brokerage maintains a 'sell' on the company, with a target price of Rs 1,165, implying a downside of 77% from the previous close.

• Margins were aided by lower provisions and before-time deliveries.

• Elevated margins in fiscals 2025 and 2026 will sustain planned deliveries ahead of schedule.

• Increase earnings per share estimates by 51% for fiscal 2025 and 73% for fiscal 2026.

• Believes margins will taper off once new contracts are executed.

• The current orderbook is to be executed by the end of fiscal 2026.

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Nomura On Impact of Retrospective Taxation On Minerals

• Retrospective taxation on minerals impact cement players since they mine limestone.

• Expect coal, iron ore mining firms to be impacted more than limestone miners.

• Tata Steel, NMDC, Coal India to be impacted the most.

• JSPL should have lower dues due to recent iron ore mine acquisition.

Nomura On Impact Of Mineral Taxes On Indian Cement Industry

• Has a 'buy' rating on Shree Cement, Ambuja Cement, The Ramco Cements, 'neutral' on Nuvoco Vistas Corp., and 'reduce' on Dalmia Bharat.

• Revenue collection from limestone significantly lower versus coal and iron ore.

• Total duties collected on limestone in fiscal 2024 is less than Rs 5,000 crore.

• UltraTech to pay Rs 4,400 crore in mineral taxes, Rs 370 crore annually for 12 years starting fiscal 2027.

• Cash outflow to be similar for other players.

• Tax imposition to increase raw material cost and lower Ebitda margins.

• Believe companies can pass on increased costs.

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HSBC On Shriram Finance

• The brokerage maintains 'buy' on the company, with a target price of Rs 3,600, implying an upside of 21% from the previous close.

• Estimate return on assets of 3.5%, and return on equity of 17%.

• Value company at 2.1 times the price to book value of fiscal 2026.

• Company in most convincing operating period in over a decade.

• Several catalysts including growth, lower exposure to unsecured loans and better margins responsible.

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Bernstein On Paytm

• The brokerage maintains 'outperform', with a target price of Rs 600, implying an upside of 6% from the previous close.

• Base case: Business likely to turn profitable by fiscal 2027 and deliver earnings per share growth.

• Marriage with a bank will unlock maximum value for shareholders.

• Corporate entity taking an equity interest would unlock value.

• Upside risks include quick scale up in secured loan distribution, expense control, and fee for UPI payments.

Motilal Oswal On Glenmark Pharma

• The brokerage upgarded to 'buy' on the company, with a target price of Rs 1,850, implying an upside of 18% from the previous close.

• Expect to deliver profit after tax of Rs 1,670 crore in fiscal 2026.

• Raised earnings estimates by 11% for fiscal 2025 and 17% for fiscal 2026 factoring in niche product pipeline in respiratory for US generics, outperformance versus industry in DF segment, and reduced spending on innovative R&D.

• Product mix and lower R&D expenses drive margins year-on-year.

• Operational performance inline with first quarter expectations; improved performance in domestic formulations and European Union segments drive earnings.

• The company has restructured its business model by focusing on

  key markets – India, US, EU and ROW, hiving off application and programming interfaces business.

• Believe company is gearing up for consistent turnaround in its overall performance.

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Nuvama On Sunteck Realty

• The brokerage maintains 'buy' on the company, with a target price of Rs 690, implying an upside of 18% from the previous close.

• Sales and collections continue to be strong.

• New project launches are planned for fiscal 2025.

• New launches in the Dubai market.

• Strong balance sheets and business development are key positives.

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Emkay On Suprajit Engineering

• The brokerage maintains 'buy' on the company, with a target price of Rs 725, implying an upside of 16% from the previous close.

• Trim earnings per share for fiscals 2025 and 2026 by 3% on the first quarter miss.

• Building in 23% revenue and 41% earnings per share CAGR for fiscals 2024–2027.

• A buyback was announced at Rs 750 per share, or 1.3% of the current market cap.

• The first quarter's performance was muted compared to estimates.

• Management reiterated that the growth outlook is improving and expects 10% for fiscal 2025.

• Led by strong order-win traction in global business and the ramp-up of new products like brakes.

• Believe company would continue benefiting from market share gains from industry consolidation.

Nomura On Eclerx

• The brokerage maintains 'buy' on the company, with a target price of Rs 3,000, implying an upside of 24.9% from the previous close.

• Cut earnings per share estimate for fiscals 2025-27 by 1.4% to 2.5% driven by lower margin expectation.

• Financial markets reported strongest sequential growth, saw early signs of green shoots.

• Early signs of sales effectiveness is visible in strong annual contract value of new deals.

• Expect first quarter to be the weakest quarter from growth and margin perspective.

• Expect the growth rate to accelerate sequentially over the fiscal.

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