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Current dengue surge not the worst Karnataka has seen, highest cases in last 10 years was in 2023
In 2023, Karnataka had recorded 19,300 dengue cases, the highest in the last 10 years. The highest number of deaths were reported in 2019 with 17 patients succumbing to the vector-borne disease, followed by 11 in 2023
While there is much alarm over the rise in dengue cases in Karnataka, a look at data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP) under the Directorate General of Health Services of the Union Government shows that this is not the worst surge Karnataka has seen.
In 2023, Karnataka had recorded 19,300 dengue cases, the highest in the last 10 years. The highest number of deaths were reported in 2019 with 17 patients succumbing to the vector-borne disease, followed by 11 in 2023. Other than that, the number of dengue deaths has remained below 10 since 2014. This year so far, 8,221 cases and seven deaths have been reported.
Why dengue cases are on the rise | Explained
Why Karnataka need not declare a medical emergency for dengue
Mohammed Sharief, State Programme Officer, NVBDCP, said Karnataka has been following a pattern of spiking every alternate year. “The transmission of dengue is governed by various ecological factors. Unplanned developmental activities, improper water storage, migration and improper solid waste management also play a crucial role. Dengue-causing aedes aegypti mosquitoes breed in fresh water and bite during the day,” he said.
“While there is a demand that Karnataka should declare this year’s dengue outbreak as a medical emergency, there is no reason for alarm as dengue outbreaks are common during this part of the year. The surge usually lasts for over two months. The number of cases should start decreasing by mid-August,” Dr Sharief said.
| Year | Cases | Death |
| 2014 | 3,358 | 2 |
| 2015 | 5,077 | 6 |
| 2016 | 6,083 | 8 |
| 2017 | 17,844 | 10 |
| 2018 | 4,848 | 4 |
| 2019 | 18,183 | 17 |
| 2020 | 3,823 | 5 |
| 2021 | 7,393 | 7 |
| 2022 | 9,889 | 9 |
| 2023 | 19,300 | 11 |
| 2024 | 8,221 | 7 |
At its meeting on July 7, the State’s COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) — that was also entrusted with the task of advising on communicable and other infectious diseases, including dengue — discussed if the present dengue surge is a medical emergency.
A TAC member said, “We concluded that the rise in the number of dengue cases is under control, and there are not many admissions in hospitals. Besides, the infrastructure, the testing kits and availability of drugs is adequate. Hence, there is no need to declare a medical emergency.”
No need to panic
Experts that The Hindu spoke to concurred.
“We have seen previous outbreaks in Karnataka when hospitals were flooded with dengue patients, and beds had become scarce. The situation is not that bad now,” said Susanta Kumar Ghosh, former scientist and head of field station of ICMR-National Institute of Malaria Research in Bengaluru.
Asserting that dengue surveillance should be similar to COVID-19, Dr. Ghosh said, “Epidemiologically, both the diseases present over 80% asymptomatic cases. Similar to contact tracing in COVID, there should be combing operations for source reduction of mosquito breeding around the houses of those who test positive for dengue.”
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Epidemiologist Giridhar R. Babu, who was part of the TAC during the pandemic, said there is no need to declare a public health emergency. “The emergency is to declare a war against misinformation, and to stop medicalising a social problem,” he said in a post on social media.
Improved reporting of cases is not a problem, not reporting is
“The growing magnitude of dengue outbreaks could also be attributed to cyclical trends, improved diagnostics and improved surveillance, which partially explains the discord between rising trend in cases and hospitalisation. The tendency is to blame States that report accurately, such as Karnataka and Kerala, which have better surveillance systems,” he said.
“The real worry is about States which do not report accurately, and, therefore, the vulnerable people are at greater risk there. This is the time to tackle dengue with evidence-based management and avoid misinformation,” he added.
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