(Bloomberg) — US officials said efforts to reach a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas are nearing the final stages, as diplomats worked frenetically to bring the fighting to an end at last and also keep Iran from a retaliatory strike that might ignite a wider war.
“We are closer than we’ve ever been” to an agreement, President Joe Biden said in Washington Friday, hours after Egyptian and Qatari mediators and US envoys concluded two days of talks in Doha and vowed to convene another round by the end of next week in Cairo. Biden deployed Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel, with the top US diplomat set to depart Saturday to press for the deal.
A senior US official outlined the fresh terms of the proposal, saying it would involve a phased approach, with Israel redeploying its troops as hostages are released while allowing unarmed Palestinian civilians to return to their homes. It closely resembles a plan Biden unveiled in May to halt the violence and free the hostages Hamas still holds in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
The big wild card is Hamas, which refused to participate in the latest round of talks. The US official suggested that opposition might not be as unequivocal as initially believed, saying that the group’s Doha-based representatives were consulted.
The negotiations in Doha were “serious and constructive,” preparing the way for the next round after mediators made a proposal to resolve remaining questions, according to a joint statement from the US, Egyptian and Qatari governments.
“This proposal builds on areas of agreement over the past week, and bridges remaining gaps in the manner that allows for a swift implementation of the deal,” according to the statement.
The latest negotiations represent what officials suggested was a make-or-break moment in the efforts to end a war that began after Hamas fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people. Israel responded with an air and ground assault and more than 40,000 people have died, according to official with the Gaza health ministry, which is controlled by Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the US.
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Those working to close out the cease-fire negotiations once and for all, as the US official put it, have another motive too: heading off an attack that Iran has threatened against Israel for assassinations in Beirut and Tehran more than two weeks ago, including of a top Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh. Israel won’t say whether it killed Haniyeh, but Iran says it’s to blame for both assassinations and must be punished.
In a statement late Friday clearly aimed at Iran, Biden said that “with the comprehensive cease-fire and hostage release deal now in sight, no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process.”
Scenarios for an Iranian attack vary widely, but officials have been warning for days that it could come at any time. The fear is that Iran and its proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis will overwhelm Israeli defenses and cause extensive casualties. That would make an attack far worse than what Israel saw in April, when hundreds of drones and missiles were launched by Iran in response for the killing of senior military commanders in Syria.
Israel, the US and other allies managed to repel that attack, and Israel’s subsequent retaliation was muted. This time, the fear is that if Iran or its proxies target and kill many civilians, Israel will respond with a punishing attack of its own, sparking fresh conflict with Lebanon, where Hezbollah is based, or directly with Iran.
Mediators have struggled in previous rounds to resolve a key rift between Israel and Hamas: Israel insists that after a cease-fire it would resume fighting until Hamas is totally destroyed, while the group is demanding that any cease-fire lead to an end to the fighting and the withdrawal from Gaza of all Israeli troops.
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There was significant progress on many elements during the most recent talks in Doha, according to an Israeli official familiar with the talks, who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
That should enable the planned meeting next week, although gaps still remain over the proposed withdrawal of troops from the Philadelphi Corridor, the southern portion of Gaza that runs along the border with Egypt, the official said.
Another point of contention is the future of military presence around the Netzarim Corridor, which separates Gaza into two roughly equal halves in the north and south, the official said. The Doha round failed to account for some of the elements that were part of an earlier draft presented in July, the Qatari-owned network Al Jazeera cited an unidentified Hamas official as saying.
The progress cited by the mediators was made during talks attended by an Israeli delegation led by the Mossad spy service chief David Barnea, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel. CIA director William Burns was also present, representing the US.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office sought to put the onus on Hamas, saying in a statement Friday that “Israel appreciates the efforts of the US and the mediators to dissuade Hamas from its refusal” to agree to a hostage release deal.
–With assistance from Akayla Gardner.
(Updates with Biden statement in ninth paragraph)
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