Goldman Cuts US Recession Risk Following Retail Sales, Jobs Data

(Bloomberg) — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists lowered the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25%, citing this week’s retail sales and jobless claims data.

If the August jobs report set for release on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good, we would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%, where it stood for almost a year” before a revision on Aug. 2, the Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius said in a report to clients on Saturday.

A flurry of data showing US economic resilience drove stocks to their best week this year, with dip buyers stepping in after a recent rout. The value of retail sales increased in July by the most since early 2023. Separate government figures showed the fewest applications for unemployment benefits last week since early July.

Goldman economists also said they have become “more confident” the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at their September policy meeting, “although another downside jobs surprise on September 6 could still trigger a 50bp move.”

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