The Iran-Israel confrontation has now entered a dangerous new phase of direct clash. Until now Iran contained Israeli influence via surrogates and militias in Israeli neighborhoods. In Lebanon Hezbollah was born in 1982 after Israel’s invasions of that country in 1978 and then 1982. Hamas came into prominence in Gaza after winning the 2006 election.
Israel used an ascendant Hamas to counter the Palestinian National Authority’s power and influence, which the latter drew from the 1993 Oslo Accords. Hamas seized control of Gaza in 2007, after emerging dominant in the 2006 Palestinian legislative election. Coincidentally these developments mirror the rise of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who held office in the past during 1996-99 and 2009-21. His current term commenced in 2022 and has been the most disruptive for Israel due to his alliance with extreme rightwing parties, which are bigoted and blatantly anti-Arab.
Netanyahu has survived politically, despite serious corruption charges, projecting himself as the nation’s defender against threat from Iran and its surrogates. US presidents have rarely managed to constrict his anti-Palestinian instincts as he is a master at manipulating partisanship in US congress. His addresses to the US houses of Congress have not always been with the consent of the US administration. The recent address, not attended by half the Democrats and the vice president Kamala Harris, fell in the same category.
The last US president to handle him with firmness was Barack Obama. Netanyahu first met him while Obama was still a candidate. Their very first official meeting was tense, as Obama insisted on restricting new Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Netanyahu’s relationship with Joe Biden has always been warmer, including during the Obama presidency. Their friendship goes back to when Biden was a senator and Netanyahu the Israeli ambassador to the UN. This did not keep Israel from playing politics as right in the middle of Biden‘s official visit to Israel as vice president, announcements were made of additional settlements.
Donald Trump as president gave a long rope to the Israeli government. He announced the shifting of the US embassy to Jerusalem without obtaining commitment on implementation of the peace process, based on the Oslo Accords. Netanyahu’s current government, with dependence on far-right allies, harbouring severe anti-Palestinian bias, believed it could rule by keeping those in Gaza in open-jail conditions and the Palestinian National Authority in the West Bank on a tight leash, while more land was grabbed for settlements. The Palestinian issue was treated as dead and suppressive control adequate to handle it.
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The Indian government, with BJP’s latent fondness for the rightwing Israeli politicians and Modi-Netanyahu chemistry, also believed in the same myth. The India Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) was signed on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Delhi on September 9. Less than a month later the Hamas uprising on October 7 undermined it and triggered the Gaza conflict. Netanyahu’s popularity plummeted with demands for his resignation and fresh elections. It has been suspected that his unwillingness to accept a ceasefire was largely due to fear that if hostilities stopped the demand for his exit will strengthen.
The assassinations of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Teheran and of Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut, and with Israel preparing to invade Lebanon, cornered Iran. With its allies weakened due to leadership and personnel losses Iran could not but retaliate to ensure its influence persisted. The over 200 ballistic missiles unleashed at Israel by Iran have made the situation extremely volatile.
There are reports that Israel wants to use the current situation to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, like it once did those in Iraq. It calculates that with Iranian surrogates weakened and global sympathy with it serious damage to Iranian oil, port and nuclear infrastructure could collapse the Iranian economy. That could, Israel may think, make the Iranian people rise up in protest.
President Joe Biden has so far continued to militarily assist Israel, and not visibly pressed for a ceasefire. Rendered lame-duck, his ability to control Netanyahu, even if the will exists, is now limited. With four weeks to the US presidential election chaos could benefit Donald Trump, whom Israel would prefer as Biden’s successor. Thus Netanyahu can influence US election results, though outcomes of conflict can be unpredictable.
The US would like nominal retaliation from Israel, with only some IRGC buildings or equipment targeted. Iran also had basically fired missiles at Israeli air bases and Mossad headquarters. If Israel widens the target list then Iranian reaction can be unpredictably severe. Thus it is not surprising that Gulf countries are reaching out to Iran. They do not want to suffer collateral damage.
India has high stakes in the possible outcome. It has 7-8 million diaspora in the Gulf nations, oil imports and trade to worry about. Interestingly China is silent, acting neutral and leaning towards Iran. Indian diplomacy is about to get seriously tested.
KC Singh is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs
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