In the aftermath of France's far-right National Rally surging into the lead in the first round of legislative elections, a few European neighbours have cast a watchful eye on the latest country to veer to the right on the continent. The French result came after the European Parliament elections last month bolstered hard-right parties overall. Notably, the results came on the back of Hungary taking over the European Union's presidency for the coming six months. The nation is led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a long-standing Eurosceptic. Round two of the legislative election will take place in France on July 7.
Pro-European politicians are apprehensive about a further weakening of unity within the 27-nation bloc, which is already experiencing anti-European sentiment in many regions, triggered by issues such as inflation, migration, and the war in Ukraine that has brought in millions of refugees looking for shelter. A National Rally victory in the run-off elections could have consequences not just for France, but for Europe. The far-right party is critical of the EU and pursues a “France First” policy. It also wants to move away from the strong partnership of France and Germany, the EU's two biggest economies, which together formed the nerve centre of European integration.
Germany, the closest partner of France in the EU, has witnessed a spike of the far right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, in recent years too. In the European election last month , the far-right AfD surged, while Berlin’s unpopular governing parties sank to feeble results. In Italy, PM Georgia Meloni and her outfit with pro-fascist bent succeeded in consolidating power.
Political observers have attributed this rightward leaning to a multitude of causes. For starters, there is dissatisfaction and fear for the future among European citizens, especially the lower and middle income groups. Pain points include social benefits, pensions, and internal security. What has also stuck out like a sore thumb is the billions of euros pumped into the war in Ukraine, which shows no signs of ending. The gradual erosion of faith in elitist social democratic and left wing parties has inspired the electorate to now give a chance to right wing outfits.
Interestingly, the question of immigration, which has often been employed by far right groups as a trump card, has now found its way into the rhetoric of almost all political parties in Europe. Most outfits are indeed calling for restrictions on migration, with the only difference being the extent to which they are willing to tighten the proverbial noose on the arrival of refugees. What's also emerged as a surprise is the manner in which even Europeans with immigrant backgrounds are now calling for an embargo on new arrivals.
The sentiment hasn’t gone unnoticed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, who recently called for vigilance, citing narratives that dehumanise migrants and asylum seekers. The rightward shift might also impact the views of the bloc members with regard to NATO. Pew Survey polls have shown that in a few European countries, the upbeat perspective about NATO, as well as confidence in Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has started to diminish. Worryingly for the bloc, a mild increase in favourable views towards Russia as well as confidence in Russian president Putin has been recorded across several European countries this year, as compared to 2023. There is also the heartache of what an independent foreign and security policy might resemble in the event of NATO’s disbandment as a result of Donald Trump’s possible election as the next American president.