With Maharashtra just two weeks away from the big Assembly polls of 2024 in 288 constituencies, the alliances on both sides of the political divide are busy taking stock of who stands where and what are the strategies they can adopt in the last 13 days of the campaign. With the festive season over, the voters who were on holiday are now back home and political parties are now making the most of the limited time frame they have to reach out to them. As things stand the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti now looks better among the two alliances in controlling party rebels, which was threatening to be a big challenge, while the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi looks better in terms of getting caste equations right because one of the biggest factors in these polls is going to be the caste-based polarisation now seen in the state.
There was a lot of discussion in the media about whether rebel candidates would be able to spoil the party for the alliances. In Assembly polls, since the margin is going to be small, even a few thousand votes going this way or that way could affect candidates and their parties. In Lok Sabha in some of the constituencies this time the winning margin was in the few thousands. In a constituency like Beed it was just 6,000 while in one constituency in Mumbai it was just 48 votes. So leaders seem concerned about quelling rebellion among parties.
The BJP has so far done very well in making their rebel candidates withdraw. From Gopal Shetty in Mumbai to Amol Balwadkar in Kothrud of Pune, dozens of leaders had shown resentment at not getting the party’s official nomination; however, they were all finally seen issuing statements that they will work according to the party’s orders and cooperate with the official candidates. The picture in this regard has not been too good for the MVA. Whether it is Kolhapur North constituency or three constituencies in Pune or many other constituencies in various parts of the state, the rebel candidates of MVA have not withdrawn and they are likely to create a headache for the party’s official candidate in the polling.
The biggest event this week, which was perhaps unforeseen, was the withdrawal of candidates by Maratha agitation leader Manoj Jarange-Patil. Speculation was rife over what exactly would be the impact of Jarange-Patil fielding candidates especially in the Marathwada region of the state, which is politically very active and saw 65% to 70% voter turnout in many of the 46 assembly segments there. The general trend seen in Marathwada among Maratha voters was to go with Maha Vikas Aghadi. This means Jarange-Patil’s decision to withdraw will directly benefit the MVA because the division of Maratha votes will perhaps be avoided.
Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Manoj Jarange-Patil Won’t Play Poll Spoiler; Asks His Candidates To Withdraw Their Nominations
Apart from big issues on rural voters’ minds such as agrarian crisis and economic issues, the biggest factor that will be crucial in Maharashtra this time will be the polarisation which has happened on caste lines. The MVA seems to have done better in terms of getting the caste equation right for the polls this time. In Marathwada region the MVA has gone for seat distribution which reflects the caste demographics. In Mumbai the MVA constituents had disputes on many seats but they seem to have finally got the equation right and in Vidarbha they have gone for seat distribution which is conventional and tested in the past.
The other big question asked by many observers is whether BJP’s Hindutva drive will work during the Assembly polls this time. Deputy Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis in his speeches and media interactions has made it clear that his party will drive the Hindutva agenda too. The feeling that in the Lok Sabha polls the BJP lost many seats by a margin of less that 1% of the total votes polled has alerted the BJP leaders and they feel that if the grassroots workers are taken out of their homes a bit more for campaign and other work, perhaps this loss which was experienced in the Lok Sabha polls can be recovered. On one hand the BJP is driving the campaign on the basis of development work and infrastructural projects that were completed in the past few years, but on the other hand they also want to go with the HIndutva narrative to ensure that edge which is needed.
The overall picture seems to be quite uncertain in terms of who has an upper edge between the two alliances. The situation keeps changing by the week, and whether the rollout of direct benefit transfer schemes for farmers and women will be the game-changer, or whether caste polarisation and economic issues will dominate, is difficult to predict at this stage.
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune
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