In a recent conversation between veteran investor Ramesh Damani and political analyst Larry Sabato, intriguing insights emerged regarding Donald Trump's electoral prospects in the upcoming U.S. election. Notably, Sabato suggested that Trump has a 'glass ceiling' in terms of his voter support, likely not surpassing 47% to 48%.
Sabato elaborated, stating, "I do not him see him ever getting over 50%, I just do not think that is possible because he has too many built-in opponents."
He emphasised that while Trump's base is loyal and likely to turn out in large numbers, the burden falls on Democrats to mobilise their supporters, who often find excuses not to vote. If Democrats can achieve strong voter turnout, they could potentially win the popular vote.
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The discussion also touched on the nuances of the U.S. electoral system, particularly the Electoral College. Sabato explained that the system was established in 1789 and operates on the principle that electors, rather than the popular vote, ultimately decide the presidency.
Comparing Trump to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has remarked on winning final elections despite polling losses, Sabato pointed out that Trump's situation is different. He noted that since his loss in the US elections, Trump has propagated false claims about voter fraud to soothe his ego.
Sabato elaborated, "Well he (Trump) did lose in 2020, then he made a giant story to cover his wounded ego about voter fraud…I am here to tell you there was no voter fraud, he made it up, but of course his base believes anything that he says, so he did lose in 2020… He lost the popular vote as well in 2016, but he won all the important electoral college… But this time around it is very close, I do not think he will win the popular vote unless there are 10 candidates, but in this particular case his problem is electoral college because his coalition is not as strong as it once was but it may be stronger than Kamala Harris‘.”
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